Most underestimated company?

I noticed something the other day in several separate conversations about the general direction of Enterprise IT. Apple's future role in Enterprise IT is still heavily underestimated even by the firm's biggest fans. I think this underestimation is driven by an instinctive belief that the past, in part, dictates the future and that the impact of consumerization will be relatively limited and has largely already played out. However, the past is just that and consumerization is just getting warmed up.

Let's think first about the past, all the way up to today. The reality is Microsoft controls about 90% of the market. I'm not sure it's still possible to find anyone outside of Redmond that argues that number is going up. How could it? Once you achieve total domination over a market there is only one direction to go - down. The conversation has moved from if it's going down to how fast and how far.

Microsoft has announced "Windows 8" will support the ARM architecture. So hypothetically this means you could have a full version of Windows running on a tablet like device with all the benefits of a full OS with the mobility and battery life of a tablet. This tremendous feat of technical innovation would basically make iOS and Android second rate "toys" with the "real productivity" still locked safe and sound, from Redmond's perspective, in Excel and Outlook - and full versions of the applications, not "second rate" web apps. Microsoft would pull off a major coup again and stay firmly planted as king of the hill. Could it happen? Well, I guess it ... no, not a chance. Even if Microsoft actually pulled it off perfectly the world has moved on to the next hill. In 3 years are you going to trade in your Android or Apple tablet so you can run Office? No way.

"Hi, I'd like to buy a new computer - I'm looking for one with Word." Does anyone say that? Maybe they do, I'm sure the guys and gals at Best Buy hear some incredibly stupid shit. Word, Excel, PowerPoint and Outlook ... 4 applications. 10 years ago 4 applications meant something. Today we have hundreds of applications at our finger tips. 5 years ago people were reluctant to purchase a device that didn't support Office - today we buy machines without Office faster and in more volume than ever before in history. The affect is direct and indirect - we learn Outlook and productivity don't actually have that much in common and we're exposed to cool new applications for collaborating with others. Nobody buys an iPhone or Android device because it has Office. Microsoft's 90% market share in the OS market is going to fall Internet Explorer style.

If Enterprise IT departments think they've basically weathered the consumerization storm because they now support iPhones and decided to unblock Facebook they're mistaken. The business is remembering who works for who and, while they appreciate and are grateful for your help and support, they also know if you get in their way they have other options.  Apple's PC market share is roughly 5%. You know a lot of people who switch to Mac and then go back to Windows? Given the option of an iPhone or a Blackberry we know most people choose the iPhone.

What happens when they have the choice, which they will, of a MacBook Air or any device running Windows?

UPDATE: On August 9th and 10th, 2011 Apple passed Exxon mobile, in terms of market capitalization, to become the world's most valuable company. I think they still have a long way up to go.