It's been about year since I wrote about Amazon's potential smartphone aspirations. At that time, people were discussing Amazon's entrance into tablets. Fast forward, they've entered and launched what is currently the most successful non-Apple modern tablet device. Pretty sweet really. I think the Fire is a decent device, especially considering Amazon's content library. Personally I knew I wouldn't get one when it became obvious Amazon had decided to make their own version of Android. They essentially leveraged Android to make their version of iOS - an Amazon walled garden. From their business model perspective I think it makes sense. Jeff Bezos is a hell of a lot smarter than I am and of course I get to vote with my wallet. While the Fire isn't for me, I still buy tons of ebooks and other gear from Amazon. And a lot of other people are buying Kindle Fires.
Should Amazon launch a phone? Amazon doesn't report Kindle Fire numbers specifically but they do note that the device is the #1 selling device on all of Amazon - which is pretty amazing. Given Fire's success, Amazon should launch a phone. The number #1 selling device on Amazon has been a mobile device for more than 2 years now, dating back to earlier Kindles.
Saleforce.com's Marc Benioff shared this graph below on Facebook. It's been clear for a long time, that the "phone" part is one of the least interesting features of smartphones. Amazon has literally done most of the hard work required to develop a mobile device and supporting ecosystem. They just need to decide if the device is going to run on AT&T/T-Mobile or Verizon/Sprint and add the appropriate radio technology. (I realize there's more to it than that ... but that does seem like the easiest part of the modern smartphone, even Blackberries can make phone calls and they're horrible smartphones.)
Based on Amazon's history (and my personal hope) I think they'll launch the device as an "unlocked" smartphone sold directly from their online store. Google has been doing this for a few years now with limited success. I agree with the sentiment that carriers are the biggest threat to innovation. The United States "communications" industry has been broken for a very long time. Oligopolies are bad for consumers. This is why our Internet access is the most expensive in the world. Amazon turned the publishing world on its head, with a lot of great results. Amazon is in a great position to sell an "unlocked" modern smartphone at a fraction of those currently available.
A 32 GB unlocked iPhone 4S from AT&T is $750.00! The Galaxy Nexus, Google's current flagship device, is $350. What if Amazon comes out at $199..? Would people bite? Americans still aren't used to buying devices off contract but it does seem like it's becoming more popular. If the world's most popular e-commerce site can't sell smartphones directly to consumers who can? If I was Microsoft I'd be praying that Amazon stays on the sidelines. If you look at the reality of the market today, the race to be the #3 mobile OS is wide open. Even though the IDC knows it's going to be Apple in 2016 ;-) I think it's more likely the IDC is out of business by 2016.
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