RIM had a horrible 2011 but 2012 will be much, much worse. Personally I doubt RIM will make it to 2013 as an independent company. I can't think of a buyer because I'm not sure why anyone would buy the firm but something is going to give in 2012 and it won't be reality.
The consumerization of technology is just starting to impact corporate IT environments and unfortunately for RIM, they're right in the crosshairs. The days of the corporate issued Blackberry are quickly coming to an end. Employees from the boardroom to the summer internship program have all gotten their hands on an iPhone or Android device. They got a taste of an experience created just for them and the Blackberry became a necessary nuisance, if it continued to be part of their life at all.
The Internet is the most disruptive technology in human history. Unfortunately for RIM, the most utilized app on smart phones is the browser. Surfed the web on a Blackberry lately? A look at the newspaper industry, the most obvious victim of Web 1.0's text and links, provides a clear illustration of how disruptive technologies can impact business models.
Now, just think of people you know who have Blackberry devices. That chart over the past few years would look very similar. Turns out a tiny little keyboard that clicks isn't a good match for the entire World Wide Web. You'd think RIM executives would have seen that coming, too busy being successful yesterday to think about today much less tomorrow. Web 2.0 is now in full swing.
RIM's devices and data network are obsolete. The world has moved on. RIM will make an exceptional case study for business students taking disruptive innovation 101.
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